According to a media release sent out today from the Office of the Director of DETR the following statement was said;

“As we head into the holiday season, this is welcome news; however it is not a reason to be overly optimistic. The state’s well-chronicled economic difficulties are far from over,” he said. “We expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise over time, but we are seeing some signs of stabilization. The decline in the jobless rate is more a reflection of a stagnant or declining labor force than an improvement on the employment front. At best, October’s trends, coupled with a growing belief that national conditions are (tentatively) on the mend, suggest that the economy may be in the process of stabilizing, but at a level which will still result in continued hardships for many Nevadans.”

As we move into a new year we will start to see a slow progression of Las Vegas job growth.

What has been interesting is analyzing the skill sets and demographics as the leads come in.  Many have hotel experience and are interested in shifting into a housekeeping role.  And the majority of interested candidates have a firm command of the English language, which validates our belief that GRAs do not need to be Mexican women.

Here are some examples of the demographics we compiled from a sample of just a few hundred:

Last week there was an article on MSN Money that discusses the rental truck rate variation based on where the jobs are.  In this article they compared Las Vegas to San Antonio…..respectively a city that is getting its butt kicked (Las Vegas - 13.9% Unemployment)  in the recession and one that is riding through the recession without many issues (San Antonio - 7% unemployment). 

This was their finding:

• From Las Vegas to San Antonio - truck rental fee - $1,880
• From San Antonio to Las Vegas - $437

Sad to say, but Las Vegas is no longer the relocation destination it once was.  This all has to do with jobs.  When we have them…..and we have for 21 consecutive years as the fastest growing city ….everyone wants to be here.  When we don’t, Las Vegas is not as appealing.

It mirrors Senator Reid’s television commercials with Jim Murren, CEO of MGM-Mirage, where Senator Reid takes credit for “Saving over 22,000 jobs at CityCenter.”  In this brochure there is another quote from Jan Jones, Senior VP of Harrah’s Entertainment - “Harry Reid’s legislation allowed us to protect 31,000 jobs in Nevada.”

Fast Tube by Casper

The U.S. Department of Education created a unique program called “Race to the Top.”  Here is a brief description of the program:

Awards in Race to the Top will go to States that are leading the way with ambitious yet achievable plans for implementing coherent, compelling, and comprehensive education reform. Race to the Top winners will help trail-blaze effective reforms and provide examples for States and local school districts throughout the country to follow as they too are hard at work on reforms that can transform our schools for decades to come.”

Unfortunately, Nevada cannot even compete for the $4.35 billion in funding for this initiative because of a bill introduced in the 2003 legislative special session. 

If Nevada wants to become a leader we need more of an emphasis on education.  It is the foundation of a self-sufficient state.  And a smart one!!

The federal government says that the stimulus has directly created or saved 5,658 jobs in Nevada . The state itself puts that number at 5,080. Sen. Harry Reid’s office says it’s 6,134.

When it comes to measuring the direct effect of the hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into Nevada from the federal American Recovery Relief Act, it has become clear that, so far, little is clear.

Not only do the numbers not match up, but instead of representing real bodies in actual jobs, the numbers are estimates — the result of different state agencies using different formulas to calculate stimulus results.

Some local governments, for example, have been told to take the amount of stimulus money they received and divide it by $92,000, the theoretical average wage and benefits of a job. The Nevada Department of Education used $66,681 for its calculation of an average wage and benefit for K-12 employees. And the state’s higher education system figured it at $45,000.

The amorphous jobs numbers have frustrated some legislators, who were left disappointed this week when they tried to figure out how many jobs had been saved or created by the stimulus.

“The original intent of the stimulus was the creation of jobs,” Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, said at a legislative hearing on the stimulus Tuesday. “I question the credibility in my own mind of the reports we’re receiving … I don’t think we’re really getting, or the public is really getting, an accurate picture of what the stimulus is creating with respect to jobs.”

Most of the jobs the stimulus is credited with creating or saving in Nevada are in education, with more than 2,000 each in the higher education and K-12 systems.

Yet, Raggio said, “I don’t for a moment believe that 4,000 teachers would have been laid off if not for the stimulus.”

Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, D-Sparks, chairwoman of the Legislature’s stimulus oversight committee, said the purpose of the stimulus was threefold — create jobs, offer tax relief and keep programs such as unemployment assistance and Medicaid going.

“Without the stimulus, there would have been significant cuts to education,” she said, though she acknowledged that quantifying that number is difficult. Still, she sees the stimulus as a benefit.

“Quite frankly, unemployment would have been higher without the stimulus,” she said.

The American Recovery and Relief Act was passed by Congress this year. President Barack Obama said its goal was to create or save 3 million jobs over the next two years and promised an unprecedented level of transparency tracking its progress.

“I wouldn’t say they’re making up numbers, but there are no standards or consistency,” said Nevada Controller Kim Wallin, a Democrat.

Wallin attended a national conference in Washington, D.C., this week along with the governor’s staff, and the bulk of complaints from various state officials centered on how they were supposed to report jobs.

In the months after the stimulus passed, the federal Office of Management and Budget had been guiding states on how to report jobs. Then, in late August or September, it let federal agencies dictate additional guidelines to their state counterparts, Wallin said.

For example, the Nevada Forestry Department had calculated that a project in rural Nevada created 34 jobs under the first guidelines. Under more recent direction, the project was estimated to have created nine jobs, Wallin said.

The federal Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board — known to stimulus junkies as the “rat board” — acknowledged that erroneous figures have been reported and promised improvements as the process goes forward.

“The recovery board has said all along that we anticipated mistakes in this first-ever effort to collect data from recipients of federal recovery dollars,” spokeswoman Cheryl Arvidson said. “Many of these mistakes are the result of innocent human error inputting data. There also have been mistakes because of confusion as to what to report and how to calculate the information that is reported.”

Wallin said she hopes the guidelines on calculating job figures would be ready for the next reporting period, in January.

“It was unreasonable to think that this would be just perfect. There’s never been an undertaking of this magnitude before,” she said. “We need to have new guidelines sooner rather than later.”

Written by:  David McGrath Schwartz, Las Vegas Sun

Back in 1989 Steve Wynn rolled the dice and built the Mirage, the first resort built in Las Vegas after 19 years of stagnation.  And following the success of the Mirage, three new mega-resorts were planned:  MGM Grand, Treasure Island and Luxor.  In 1992 Las Vegas fell on some hard economic times as these projects were nearing completion.  We faced the highest unemployment level we had faced in over a decade and things were looking pretty bleak. Very similar to today.

The opening of the three new mega-resorts turned things around (What I consider to be the first boom).  And Las Vegas did not slow for 17 more years, being recognized as the fastest growing city in the U.S. for 21 of the 22 previous years.  More jobs in Las Vegas were created than any other major market city and this job creation allowed all industries in Las Vegas to thrive. 

It all started with the Mirage.  And….all casinos in Las Vegas benefited from the opening of Mirage.  Tourists from around the World came to Las Vegas to visit the new property.  Some could not afford to stay at the Mirage, or the resort was at full capacity, so they stayed at other properties up and down the Strip.  Every casino benefited.  And the Las Vegas community benefited. 

The opening of CityCenter will be no different.  CityCenter redefines the Las Vegas resort experience.  Tourists will travel across the globe to visit CityCenter.  What is different is that many will be able to stay at CityCenter as room rates are affordable due to economic times.  But as CityCenter reaches maximum capacity, MGM-Mirage will begin to fill their other Las Vegas properties and increase occupancy levels.  And along the way other gaming empires such as Harrah’s and Wynn will benefit from the increased visitor volume….all coming to check out CityCenter. 

It is a shame that the Las Vegas economy relies so much on gaming, but for now “it is what it is.”  And if we want to get out of this mess, we need to cheer and support the pony we have in this race.  Go CityCenter….go CityCenter….GO!!

Today, there is argument whether it is either.  According to the Las Vegas Sun - calculating Las Vegas jobs created from the stimulus package is not as easy everyone thought.  The article is an interesting read:

Carson City — Forgive the average citizen if the federal stimulus does not appear to him as transparent as promised.

The federal government says that the stimulus has directly created or saved 5,658 jobs in Nevada. The state itself puts that number at 5,080. Sen. Harry Reid’s office says it’s 6,134.  Read more……

 

• Hiring in November will increase from a year ago
• Vacancies in both sectors continued to rise in October
• The rate of increase for new-hire compensation has been falling for more than a year

This chart provides some positive indicators: